This time, Mr Abe’s victory does owe something to the perceived Chinese territorial threat over the Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu in China. But the new prime minister should reserve most of his attention for the economy. Here Mr Abe has sounded much more sensible. He has proposed setting an inflation target of 2-3 per cent for the Bank of Japan. This is a good idea and can be achieved without compromising central bank independence. Mr Abe should follow through on his proposal and appoint a Bank of Japan governor who is strongly committed to restoring growth and ending the cycle of deflation.
安倍晋三这次成功当选日本首相,确实得益于中日尖阁诸岛(Senkaku,中国称钓鱼岛及其附属群岛)领土争端让日本民众感到的威胁。但这位新首相应当把主要精力放在经济问题上。他在这方面的主张听起来更加理智。他建议给日本央行(BoJ)设定2%至3%的通胀目标。这是一个好主意,可以在不牺牲央行独立性的情况下得以实现。安倍晋三应当把这个建议落到实处,任命一位强烈支持恢复经济增长、终结通缩周期的央行行长。
Inflation is not a panacea, though without it not much constructive can be done. At some point taxes must rise if Japan wants to keep spending at the present level. Here the stars may finally be aligning. Under the law, a planned doubling of sales tax to 10 per cent by 2015 can be phased in only if the economy is growing. The normally parsimonious finance ministry may thus be prepared to loosen the purse strings to “buy sufficient growth to get the tax increase implemented. Japan could thus see a mini-growth spurt in 2013 that could turn the vicious deflationary circle into something more positive.
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