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给各国领导人的新年建言

这一条是针对英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)的。倒霉的卡梅伦犯了一个错误，他未能认识到，某些看似聪明的小伎俩常常会将政治家们逼入战略上的死胡同。此前卡梅伦花了一年时间安抚、并不时讨好保守党内强硬的欧洲怀疑论者，现在他在猛然惊醒后却发现，英国正向着退出欧盟的方向前进。

I do not think that this was Mr Cameron’s aim. But casual promises to the eurosceptics that he can secure “a new settlement allowing Britain to pick and choose in its relationship with the bloc have collided with the uncomfortable fact that the other 26 members are not so keen on the idea. Ms Merkel has been offended by a clumsy attempt to blackmail the eurozone into making concessions in return for British consent to closer integration. Mr Hollande has already had his fill of perfidious Albion. Mr Cameron is left promising a referendum that could leave Britain stranded on the margins of its own continent.

我不认为退出欧盟是卡梅伦的政策目标。他对欧洲怀疑论者轻易许下了承诺，称自己能确保达成“一个新的安排，使英国在与欧盟的关系方面能有挑拣和选择的余地。但令人不那么愉快的现实是，其余26个欧盟成员国对英国这种一厢情愿的想法并不感冒。英国曾试图威胁欧元区做出让步，以此作为英国同意加强一体化的条件。但这一笨拙的企图冒犯了德国总理默克尔。法国总统奥朗德也已受够了背信弃义的英国人。卡梅伦目前只能承诺将举行一次全民公投，而这可能导致英国进一步陷入在欧洲被边缘化的困境。

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