该报告指出:“随着其他国家的迅速崛起,美国独霸的‘单级时代’已经结束,1945年以来国际政治中美国占支配地位的‘美国治下的和平’(Pax Americana)也在快速褪色。从经济规模、技术和军事开支来看,到2030年,亚洲将超越北美和欧洲的综合力量。尽管如此,美国将依然起着核心作用,因为美国仍然是能够调动联合力量应对全球挑战的唯一国家。
“No other power has the ability to replicate the US role under any scenario, said Christopher Kojm, chairman of the National Intelligence Council.
美国国家情报委员会(National Intelligence Council)主席克里斯托弗·科基姆(Christopher Kojm)说:“任何情况下,任何国家都无法替代美国的作用。
The report, Global Trends 2030, is published by the NIC and reflects the view of the US government’s 16 intelligence agencies on what the world will look like in two decades’ time. The study is published every four years to assist the long-term strategic planning of each new administration.
美国国家情报委员会出版的这份名为《2030年全球趋势》(Global Trends 2030)的报告,反映了美国政府16个情报机构对未来二十年世界局势的分析。这项研究报告每四年发布一次,帮助每一届新当选政府制定长期战略规划。
The broad conclusion about the demise of Pax Americana strikes a sharp contrast to the rhetoric of the recent presidential election campaign, during which both candidates charted a vision of continued American pre-eminence. However, the NIC is slightly more optimistic about the future US role in the world than in its previous report, compiled four years ago at the peak of the financial crisis, which described an international system that would be “unrecognisable by 2025 and “fraught with risks because of the decline in American influence.
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