你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性_BEC初级作文

你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性

我们的股票分析师认为，即使前几代iPhone的销售量维持在稳定水平，iPhone5在美国的第四季度销量会达到800万部左右。尽管我们不知道iPhone5的零售价格是多少，但如果和前几代的价格相近，iPhone5的售价会在600美元左右。同样地，如果进口部件成本和前几代的领先型号相似，这就意味着为每个手机支付大约200美元的进口费用（这部分要从GDP中扣除）。这两个数字之间的差值400美元就代表着贸易利润，可以被算入GDP。因此，用所谓的零售控制法进行计算，iPhone5的销售可以为第四季度的GDP增长贡献32亿美元，按照年率计算则为128亿美元。这将会使第四季度的年化GDP增长率提高0.33个百分点。由于新型号将拥有更新更好的功能，按质量不变计算的价格将低于目前价格，如果乐观地把这一因素计算在内——这是合理的设想——那么对GDP的提振作用将会更大，尽管前几代iPhone的发布对相关消费价格指数(CPI)的构成没有明显影响。0.33个百分点的提振会限制第四季度GDP增长预期的下行风险。我们仍然预计第四季度GDP增长率为2.0%。

This estimate seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically. However, we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection. The last iPhone launch was at a similar time last year. In October of last year, when the iPhone 4S first became widely available, overall retail sales that month significantly outperformed expectations. Essentially all iPhone sales occur either on-line or in retail stores. Over half of the 0.8% increase in core retail sales last October occurred in wo categories: on-line sales and computer and software sales, which combined had their largest monthly increase on record. The incremental growth of Q4 sales at those stores over Q3, if due to the iPhone, would have added between 0.1% to 0.2%-point to Q4 growth, after subtracting the import drag. Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned in the first paragraph is reasonable.