Since 1926, when reliable stock-market data began, the United States has had 15 presidents and nine elections in which control of the White House passed from one party to the other. That's a small sample. So you should take any statistical conclusion about the relationship between presidential election results and financial returns with a grain of salt the size of the Capitol dome.

从1926年有可靠的股市数据可查以来，美国总共有过15位总统，有九次选举出现白宫控制权从一个党转移到另一个党手中。这个样本不算大。因此，对于任何关于总统选举结果和金融回报之间关系的统计结论，你都应该大大地表示怀疑。

Such caveats won't stop pundits from speculating. One of their most prevalent beliefs: Gridlock is good for the stock market. (A Google GOOG -1.90% search returns 135,000 hits on the phrases 'gridlock is good' + 'Wall Street.') And a divided Congress is what many political forecasters expect, with Pres. Obama winning re-election, the Democrats keeping the Senate and the Republicans retaining the House.

尽管如此，金融界的翘楚们还是会花心思猜测一番。这些人中最流行的一个信念就是，僵持对股市来说是件好事。（在谷歌(Google)浏览器中搜索"gridlock is good"（僵持是好事）和"Wall Street"（华尔街）可以得到135,000个结果。）很多政治预测人士都认为将出现“分裂国会”的结果，奥巴马总统成功连任，民主党控制参议院，共和党控制众议院。

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