Q: One theme that runs through your work is that people tend to make mistakes over and over again. That's quite different than what I learned in college economics-that people are rational. How did you start thinking about people's mistakes?
问:贯穿你研究工作的一个主题就是人们往往一而再、再而三地犯错误。这与我在大学里所学的经济学──人都是理性的──大相径庭。您是如何开始思考人们的错误的?
A: When you went to college, the economics profession had reached an unnatural state. Mathematical models of rational behavior became the rage. It was just an abnormal time. I was reading more widely and wanting to come back to reality.
答:当你上大学的时候,经济学界已处于一种反常状态,理性行为的数学模型风行一时,那是一段非正常的时期。我当时博览群书,一心想要回到现实中来。
Q: Was there something you saw in reality that led you to this?
问:是不是您在现实中看到了什么,这才促使您做这方面的研究?
A: Well, bubbles. The story about bubbles was that the markets appear random, but that's only because markets respond to new information and new information is always unpredictable. It seemed to be almost like a mythology to me. The idea that people are so optimizing, so calculating and so ready to update their information, that's true of maybe a tiny fraction of 1 percent of people. It's not going to explain the whole market.
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2020-09-15
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