大萧条期间,和去杠杆化相伴的是居民压缩开支,通货膨胀和政府的刺激措施。居民支出下降的原因是储蓄率上升以及20世纪30年代人们只能部分偿还债务或者逃债,战时配给制则在20世纪40年产生了同样的影响。此外,废除金本位制有助于提高物价,进而降低了美国债务的实际价值。最后,罗斯福新政的各项措施和二战期间的大规模动员带来了政府支出,为保持GDP总量正增长做出了贡献。
The deleveraging that we are going through today is much improved from the volatile economic outcomes experienced during the Depression. Most of the deleveraging since the Great Recession has occurred in households, mostly in the form of mortgages (which fell from 73% of GDP in 2008 to 55% of GDP today), and across the U.S. financial (where debtfell from 118% of GDP in 2008 to 82% of GDP today).
现在我们所经历的去杠杆化远好于大萧条时期经济的剧烈波动。大萧条以来,大多数去杠杆化都发生在个人领域,而且以按揭贷款(它占美国GDP的比例从2008年的73%降到了目前的55%)为主;整个美国金融业也在去杠杆化(金融业债务占美国GDP 的比例从2008年的118%降到了现在的82%)。
Conversely, the federal government leveraged up (with debts rising from 72% of GDP in 2008 to 102% of GDP today) to offset this decline in borrowing from households and the financial sector. The other major sources of debt (non-financial corporate, state & local government, consumer credit, and foreign borrowing) have remained largely unchanged from crisis levels. So overall, the decline in debt-to-GDP has been relatively muted so far, falling from 409% of GDP in 2008 to 392% of GDP today.
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