预防措施也有可能过犹不及。美国预防工作组(Groups like the United States Preventive Services Task Force)等组织经常研究支持预防指导方案的证据,发现到了特定年龄,预防措施所带来的好处并不能抵消检查、外科手术和服药所带来的风险。比如说,最近美国心脏病学学院和美国心脏协会发布的胆固醇治疗指导手册把79岁作为上限,超过这个年龄就不必评估10年内心力衰竭、中风和心脏病发展及死亡的风险了。他们还建议,75岁以上、没有心脏病的人服用斯他汀可能并没有好处。但这不意味着所有人都应该听从这个建议。
Besides, isn’t 75 the new 65? Age seems a blunt criterion to decide when to stop. Is Mr. Cohen at 80 really 80? In his mid-70s, he maintained a rigorous touring schedule, often skipping off the stage. Maybe 80 is too young for him to start smoking again.
另外,75岁不就是新的65岁吗?在决定停止做某事的时候,年龄似乎是一个模糊的标准。80岁的科恩真的是80岁吗?在他75岁左右的时候还保持着严格的巡演计划,经常从台上跳下来。或许对于他来说,80岁重新开始抽烟还太年轻了。
Advances in the science of forecasting are held out as the answers to these questions. Physician researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, and at Harvard, have developed ePrognosis, a website that collates 19 risk calculators that an older adult can use to calculate her likelihood of dying in the next six months to 10 years. The developers of ePrognosis report that frail older adults want to know their life expectancy so they can not only plan their health care but also make financial choices, such as giving away some of their savings.
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