在外交车轮继续前行之际,希腊经济的齿轮也正艰难地“咬合出一片新天地。紧缩措施与欧洲经济增长放缓打击了希腊经济,也令该国总体减赤目标无望实现。但希腊政府做出的努力超越了许多人的想象。单位劳动力成本正在下降,基本赤字(不计入偿债成本)已几乎清零。
The politics of the rescue will change markedly if Athens reaches primary balance soon. It will not need help to pay wages and pensions; rescue money will only fund payments to creditors. A funding cut-off would be less devastating than earlier. It would lead to a forced restructuring, to be sure, but would be less traumatising than with a big funding gap.
如果希腊能很快达到基本收支平衡的话,那么对希腊的纾困策略将发生很大的变化。希腊将不需要援助就能支付得起工资和养老金;纾困资金将仅仅用于帮助其偿还债务。切断纾困资金的破坏性将不像先前那样严重。当然,切断纾困资金可能迫使希腊进行债务重组,但不会造成一个更严重的后果,也就是出现巨大的资金缺口。
Crucially, default need not lead to an exit from the euro. Once the ongoing recapitalisation of Greek banks is complete, and especially if the eurozone makes headway on banking union, there will be nothing for Athens to gain from an exit even in case of default.
最关键的是,希腊出现债务违约不一定导致其退出欧元区。目前正在进行的银行业资本重组一旦完成,尤其是如果欧元区建立银行业联盟的努力取得了进展的话,希腊即便出现债务违约,也不会从退出欧元区中得到任何好处。
【FT社评:希腊经济忧中带喜】相关文章:
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2020-09-15
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