The other side of China’s economic rebalancing requires the government to wind down zombie manufacturing companies that are redundant in today’s economic environment. This careful dismantling will take many years and will cause upheaval as millions of workers are required to move to new locations and jobs.
中国经济再平衡的另一个方面要求政府逐步关闭制造业僵尸企业,它们在当今经济环境中已成多余。谨慎解决该问题将耗时很多年,同时,随着数以百万计的工人不得不前往新的地方和工作岗位,这将引起社会动荡。
The government faces a tricky task to achieve this transition without social unrest but it is capable of doing so, including through greater social security provision. The cost of addressing dislocated labour for targeted industries may be expensive, perhaps as much as 1-2 per cent of GDP.
中国政府正面临着在不引起社会动荡的情况下实现经济转型的棘手任务,但是它有能力做到这一点,途径包括提供更完善的社会保障。解决目标产业裁员问题的成本可能很高,或许高达GDP的1%-2%。
But in a more centrally-planned economy, much of it state-controlled, China may manage the process better than the US and Europe did in the 1970’s and 1980’s.
但是,中国经济的中央计划色彩较浓,政府控制着经济中的很大一部分,因此中国或许会比上世纪70年代和80年代的美国和欧洲更好地管控这一过程。
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