主要国家之间的分歧日渐加大,全球体系受到侵蚀。中美两国在南海和台湾问题上采取的立场有可能导致正面冲突。越来越多的人把当前形势与冷战开始时的上世纪40年代末进行比较。一些人甚至谈到一场世界大战的意外爆发。
Major countries' differences are widening. The global system is eroding. The two countries are adopting stances on the Taiwan question and the South China Sea that can lead to head-on collisions. More and more people are making comparisons between now and the late 1940s when the Cold War started. Some people even are talking about accidentally starting a World War.
但一场新冷战并非不可避免。首先,当前世界的大趋势是和平、发展与合作共赢。国际社会大多数成员都明白,在全球化时代它们比以往任何时候都更加相互依存,因此必须接受合作而不是对抗。虽然特朗普政府让美国退出了部分国际机构,包括巴黎气候变化协议、联合国人权委员会、中程导弹条约,但世界不会允许二战前发生的国际秩序崩溃再次重演,国际社会大多数成员仍然是主张合作的。最近的一个例子就是10月在布鲁塞尔举行的第12届“亚欧会议”(ASEM),亚洲和欧洲在这次会议上携手捍卫多边主义,批评保护主义。
But a new Cold War is not inevitable. Firstly, the present general trends of the world are peace, development, and win-win cooperation. Most of the international community understands that in the age of globalization, they are more interdependent than ever before. Therefore, they must embrace cooperation rather than confrontation. As the Trump administration withdraws the US from a number of international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the reoccurrence of the collapse of the international order that happened before WWII. On the contrary, most members of the international community still advocate for cooperation. The recent case in point is the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Brussels in October, at which Asia and Europe joined hands in defending multilateralism and criticizing protectionism.
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