凯恩斯投资对当代对冲基金的启示_时事

凯恩斯投资对当代对冲基金的启示

Keynes was not deterred. By the late 1920s, he believed that the Federal Reserve would be able to maintain economic growth at a high level because inflation was under control. He was therefore exposed both to equities and especially to commodities in 1928-29, when the Fed unexpectedly tightened interest rate policy and the global cartel in rubber collapsed.

凯恩斯没有被吓阻。到20世纪20年代后期，他相信，由于通胀已得到控制，美联储(Federal Reserve)将有能力维持高速的经济增长。因此，他在1928至1929年间同时投资了股票和大宗商品，并尤其倾向于后者。而就在这时，美联储出人意料地收紧了利率政策，导致全球橡胶卡特尔崩溃。

Again, he sustained large losses as the Great Depression started. A double lesson here: don’t fight the Fed, and never, ever misread the Fed (which, of course, is much easier said than done).

随着“大萧条(Great Depression)的到来，凯恩斯再次蒙受了巨大的损失。他由此得到了一条双重教训：不要和美联储对着干，也不要误读美联储（当然，说起来容易，做起来就要难多了）。

D.E.?Moggridge, in his outstanding 1992 biography, says that “Keynes was extremely stubborn during short-term market fluctuations. Over-confidence, mixed with stubbornness, is a very bad combination for a macro investor, and his record in the 1920s was not impressive.