事实上,凯恩斯在20世纪20年代初就开始了投资活动,那时的他坚信,随着通胀局面变得不可收拾,在一战中遭受毁灭性打击的经济体(德国、法国和意大利)的货币即将崩盘。他根据这一预测很快就赚到了钱,自信过头的他声称,只要“在某个特定领域比别人多一点知识和经验,金钱“自然就会滚滚而来。
Not quite. In May 1920, the markets became temporarily optimistic about developments in Germany, and over-leveraged positions in the market were rapidly reversed. Keynes and his syndicate were in effect wiped out, although he managed to survive by borrowing more money from his father, and by 1922 he had repaid syndicate members and had amassed a personal fortune of £21,000.
可事实并非如此。1920年5月,由于市场暂对德国经济状况感到乐观,市场上通过过高杠杆率持有的头寸迅速发生逆转。凯恩斯及其辛迪加实际上全军覆没了,不过他通过向父亲借钱度过了难关。到了1922年,凯恩斯还了辛迪加成员的钱,还积攒下2.1万英镑的个人财富。
His macroeconomic reasoning had proved sound, as usual. Nevertheless, he had learnt a key lesson: that the market can stay “wrong for longer than most investors can stay liquid.
像往常一样,凯恩斯对宏观经济的判断被证明是正确的。但他得到了一条关键的教训:在市场的“错误尚未被纠正之前,大多数投资者的流动性可能便已耗荆
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