China's government is set to ease policy, but not as much as the interest-rate and currency markets believe.

中国政府将放宽政策，不过政策放宽的幅度不像利率和外汇市场所认为的那样大。

The latest indications are that China's growth remains lackluster. Purchasing Managers Index numbers for July showed the manufacturing sector flatlining. Rumors in the Chinese press put new loans for that month at about 700 billion yuan ($109 billion), down from CNY919 billion in June.

最新的迹象是中国经济增长仍然低迷。7月采购经理人指数(PMI)显示制造业活动低迷。中国媒体上流传的说法是，7月新增贷款规模约为人民币7,000亿元（约合1,090亿美元），低于6月人民币9,190亿元的规模。

The question is, how much more stimulus will the government have to introduce to keep growth above the 7.5% target for the year? Chinese firms are betting the answer will be 'a lot.'

问题是，为使今年的经济增速保持在年初制定的7.5%的目标上方，中国政府还必须推出多少刺激措施？中国企业押注说答案将是“很多。

The People's Bank of China has already surprised the market with two interest-rate cuts this year, taking the benchmark one-year interest rate from 3.5% to 3%. The interest-rate swap market is betting the rate will go to 2% in the next twelve months, implying a full percentage point cut from the current level.

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