中国央行今年以来两次降息,将一年期基准利率从3.5%降至3%,此举已令市场感到意外。利率掉期市场押注,称未来十二个月内基准利率将降至2%。若果真如此,则意味着利率将从当前水平再降整整一个百分点。
Yuan appreciation has also swung into reverse, with China's currency down 1.1% against the dollar since the end of the first quarter. The markets are betting there is more to come. The one-year forward contract is pricing in yuan depreciation of 1.5% in the year ahead.
人民币升值的趋势也已发生逆转,自一季度末以来,人民币对美元累计贬值1.1%。市场押注人民币汇率还将进一步走低。从一年期远期合约的价格看,市场的预测是未来一年人民币将贬值1.5%。
In fact, the markets are betting on more easing than makes sense. More rate cuts would certainly stimulate growth, but at the expense of worsening China's structural imbalances. A sustained fall in the yuan against the dollar in an election year in the U.S. risks diplomatic and trade tensions.
事实上,市场预计的更多宽松政策已经超出了合理水平。进一步降息肯定会刺激经济增长,但代价是中国的经济结构失衡将进一步加剧。在美国的大选年,如果人民币对美元汇率持续下跌,则可能会使外交和贸易关系变得紧张。
He Weisheng, China FX and rates strategist at Citibank, said banks and insurance companies hedging against risks from floating-rate assets and fixed-rate liabilities are the main force dragging down the interest-rate swaps. Similarly, importers hedging against dollar appreciation are depressing the yuan in the currency forward markets.
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