The ritual has been carried out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania every year since 1887. Relying on Phil is actually not much better than flipping a coin—he's right an estimated 64.4 percent of the time—but clearly someone at one time believed a groundhog had predictive abilities. Who? And why?
自1887年以来,这一仪式每年都要在美国宾夕法尼亚州的庞克瑟托尼举行。事实上,靠菲尔来预测天气的成功率不比抛硬币高多少——这只土拨鼠预测天气的准确率约为64.4%——但显然有人曾一度认为土拨鼠有预测天气的能力。是谁呢?为什么会这么认为?
To understand Phil's current status, it helps to know that superstition and weather have had a long association. Observers of the Christian holiday Candlemas, for example, received candles blessed by clergymen. If the skies were cloudy that day, warm weather was imminent; if the sun was out, winter would persist.
要明白菲尔目前的身份,最好能了解迷信和天气之间长久以来的关联。举例来说,基督教信徒在圣烛节会收到牧师祝福过的蜡烛。如果圣烛节那天是多云,说明温暖的天气很快就要来到;如果太阳出来了,冬天将会持续下去。
In Europe, the idea that winter's duration could be foretold was carried over to animal behavior. Hibernating animals like bears, marmots, and hedgehogs were observed to see when they'd emerge from their dens.
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