美国人为什么用土拨鼠来预测天气？_时事

美国人为什么用土拨鼠来预测天气？

In Europe, the idea that winter's duration could be foretold was carried over to animal behavior. Hibernating animals like bears, marmots, and hedgehogs were observed to see when they'd emerge from their dens.

在欧洲，预测冬天持续时间和动物行为扯到了一起。人们会观察熊、旱獭、刺猬等冬眠动物，看它们会不会从洞里出来。

In Germany, the weather was anticipated by badgers. When Germans began settling in Pennsylvania, however, badgers weren't so readily available: The easiest hibernating animal to locate was the groundhog. In 1887, a newspaper editor began circulating the idea that one groundhog in particular, Punxsutawney Phil, was a meteorological wonder. Before long, the entire country became preoccupied with Phil’s prognosticating, and an annual tradition was born.

在德国，天气是由獾来预测的。但是，当德国人在美国宾夕法尼亚州定居的时候，獾并没有那么好找：最容易找到的冬眠动物是土拨鼠。1887年，一位报社编辑开始传播一个信息：有一只名叫庞克瑟托尼·菲尔的土拨鼠是预测天气的奇才。没过多久，整个国家都被菲尔的预测迷住了，一项年度传统就此诞生。

Phil isn't the only one in the business of long-range forecasting. The Old Farmer's Almanac, a yearly digest of upcoming weather patterns for large geographical areas, is prepared up to 18 months in advance: Its editors claim an 80 percent accuracy rate, though some meteorologists dispute the viability of assessing weather more than two weeks out.