2018年新兴市场面临严峻考验_BEC初级作文

2018年新兴市场面临严峻考验

然而，关于美国计划中的税改会产生什么影响产生了意见分歧。管理资产达6950亿美元的基金PGIM Fixed Income的全球和宏观经济主管阿尔温德?拉詹(Arvind Rajan)表示，他预计税改不会造成美国货币政策出现大幅变化，因为美联储关注的通胀率保持在远低于2%的水平。

“The passage of the tax bill would marginally increase the number of hikes that we should expect but I don’t expect the Fed to strike out in an entirely different direction,” he says.

他说：“税收法案的通过会略微增加加息次数，这我们应该预见到，但我不认为美联储会朝着完全不同的方向行动。”

The other main cloud hanging over the generally encouraging outlook for EMs is China’s incipient economic slowdown. Consensus Economics, a private group that polls economists projections, forecasts China’s GDP growth next year to moderate to 6.4 per cent, down from the official 6.9 per cent posted in the second quarter of this year.

笼罩在新兴市场总体乐观前景上方的另一团乌云是中国渐渐出现的经济放缓。据调查经济学家预测的私人机构“共识经济学公司”(Consensus Economics)预计，明年中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长将放缓到6.4%，低于今年第二季度公布的6.9%的官方数字。

“Growth momentum [in China] has started to ease since the third quarter and we believe the slowdown is likely to be a sustained trend in 2018,” says Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Asia. “This is mainly the result of policy tightening, including financial deleveraging, anti-pollution controls and new curbs on the overheated housing market.’’