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央行独立时代即将结束

但情况已经发生了变化。自经济开始衰退以来，发达世界各经济体经济一直停滞不前，各国央行行长几乎别无选择，只能将利率维持在接近于零的水平，推出的货币政策也越来越非常规，希望能够借此推动经济开始强劲复苏。

Monetary policy today carries big political connotations. In the UK, for example, the most obvious sign is the Bank of England’s willingness to tolerate a rate of inflation far above the target set by parliament. While there is a reasonable justification – far better, surely, to squeeze all workers’ wages in real terms than to have a Depression-style rise in unemployment – it is not at all obvious that it is a decision to be made by the high priests of the central banking community alone.

如今的货币政策具有浓重的政治意味。以英国为例，最明显的信号是，英国央行(Bank of England)愿意容忍远高于英国议会所设上限的通胀率。对此存在合理解释，即：压低全体工人的实际工资，无疑远好过使社会整体失业率出现类似大萧条时期的显著上升。尽管如此，提高对通胀的容忍度显然不是英国央行高层能够决定的事情。

There are less obvious effects that also warrant greater scrutiny. Quantitative easing may make it easier for governments to raise funds cheaply; but, by increasing the net present value of pension funds’ future liabilities, it creates problems for funds already running deficits. That, in turn, means either bigger pension contributions for workers; lower prospective pension benefits; or, in the case of some public sector pensions, tax increases or spending cuts to make the numbers add up. Meanwhile, some of the biggest beneficiaries of QE are those already asset-rich and relatively old who prefer to sit on their windfall gains rather than spend them.