因此,中央银行的独立性受到威胁也就不足为奇了。这一趋势在日本表现得尤为明显。安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)领导的新政府计划任命一位新的日本央行(Bank of Japan)行长,并修订日本央行在维持物价稳定方面的政策目标。日本央行很可能迫于压力、将通胀政策目标从现在的1%调高为2%,从而与其他央行看齐。
It seems a reasonable ambition. But announcing an ambition does not necessarily imply it will be met. Supporters of struggling Aston Villa, for example, surely hope their team will one day win the English Premier League. On current form, however, the chances seem remote. Likewise, even if the BoJ hoped to hit a 2 per cent target, would it have the tools to do so?
将通胀目标水平设为2%看似合理。但公开宣布这一政策目标,并不意味着该目标一定能够实现。比如说,阿斯顿维拉(Aston Villa)足球俱乐部虽然处境艰难,但其支持者当然希望有朝一日他们的球队能够在英超联赛(English Premier League)中夺冠。然而,从目前的情况来看,这只球队夺冠的希望非常渺茫。同理,即使日本央行宣布希望将通胀率保持在2%,该行是否具备实现这一目标的政策工具则是另外一回事。
Imagine it does not. The obvious thing would be to send for the monetary helicopters, namely a big increase in the budget deficit to be funded through sales of newly issued government bonds to the central bank. At that point, the bank’s politicisation would be more or less complete: it would be no more than an agency of government.
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