“If the global economy continues to deteriorate, I will not be surprised if we see more downward pressure on oil prices, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, the oil watchdog, told the Financial Times.
国际能源署(IEA)首席经济学家比罗尔·毕洛(Fatih Birol)告诉英国《金融时报》:“如果全球经济继续恶化,那么油价下行的压力增大也是意料之中的事。
This wait-and-see approach mimics the behaviour of big consumers in 2010 at the start of the financial crisis, as prices plunged from a record high of nearly $150 to a low of $45. It could yet backfire if oil prices rise on the back of US and EU sanctions on Iran or if Saudi cuts production. “So far we have seen light hedging activity, said a New York-based commodities banker. “We expect some consumer buying if we [oil prices] go down another $10.
目前的观望态度与2010年金融危机伊始主要石油消费主体的表现如出一辙,当时油价从每桶接近150美元的历史高位下跌到45美元的低点。然而,一旦美国和欧盟对伊朗的制裁或者沙特减产导致油价上涨,就会事与愿违。纽约一位大宗商品银行家表示,“目前为止,对冲活动还不明显,如果油价再降10美元,我们预计消费者就会适当买入。
Companies keep hedging plans close to their chests, but anecdotal evidence confirms bankers’ views. Southwest Airlines, the US’s largest low-cost carrier, told investors this year that its hedge protection for the second quarter was “minimal.
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