Another emerging market that fits the same pattern is Mongolia. China accounts for no less than 92 per cent of its exports, a percentage that may actually rise as a massive copper mine comes on stream later this year. Mongolia is making some efforts to diversify. It wants to send commodities thousands of miles to Russia’s Pacific coast even though its mines lie along the Chinese border. Ulan Bator’s extravagant plan to hedge its bets points to just how hard it may be for some countries to kick the China habit.
另一个符合这种模式的新兴市场国家是蒙古。对华出口在蒙古出口中所占的比例高达92%,随着今年晚些时候蒙古一座大型铜矿投产,这一比例实际上还可能上升。蒙古正努力使出口多元化。它希望将大宗商品发到数千英里之外的俄罗斯太平洋海岸,尽管它的矿山就位于蒙中边境附近。蒙古政府代价高昂的“对冲计划表明,一些国家若想摆脱对中国的依赖会是多么的艰难。
The list of China dependants is not restricted to the developing world. Australia is also reliant on China – or, more accurately, on the high commodity prices engendered by Chinese demand. Indeed, some of the big investments planned by mining companies on the basis of an endlessly hungry China are already being shelved. Marius Kloppers, chief executive of BHP Billiton, recently said the economics of some mining projects had changed, forcing it to put them on hold. Dylan Grice of Société Général put it thus: “If Chinese resource demand holds up, everything will probably be fine. But if it doesn’t, everything won’t be.
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2020-09-15
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