依赖中国的不仅仅是发展中国家。澳大利亚也依赖中国,或者更准确地说,依赖于中国需求催生的高昂大宗商品价格。实际上,矿业企业基于中国永无止境的需求而制定的某些重大投资计划已被搁置。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)首席执行官马利尤斯·科劳珀斯(Marius Kloppers)最近表示,某些采矿项目的盈利前景已经发生了变化,只得搁置。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的迪伦·格赖斯(Dylan Grice)因此表示:“如果中国的资源需求保持强劲,或许一切都没有问题。但如果保持不住,那么一切都会出现问题。
A China slowdown need not be bad for everyone. Frederic Neumann, regional economist at HSBC, distinguishes between hard and soft commodities. A Chinese rebalancing could actually be good for soft commodities, such as wheat and soyabeans, if household spending were to rise. Brazil’s loss, in other words, could be Argentina’s gain. Other commodities, such as palm oil, used in processed foods, may also do better. That could benefit countries such as Malaysia, which has ramped up palm oil production in recent years, and Indonesia – although the latter also produces hard commodities including coal.
中国需求放缓不一定对所有国家来说都是坏事。汇丰(HSBC)亚太区经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)指出了硬性大宗商品和软性大宗商品的不同前景。如果家庭部门支出增长,中国经济的再平衡实际上或有利于小麦和大豆等软性大宗商品。换言之,巴西受损,阿根廷却可能获益。它还可能有利于用于食品加工的棕榈油等其他大宗商品。这可能会令马来西亚(该国近些年扩大了棕榈油生产)和印尼等国受益,尽管印尼也生产煤炭等硬性大宗商品。
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