而且发生频率从每4.8年一次降低到每6.3年一次。
However, in the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
但是加州在未来30年发生8级或以上地震的几率从UCERF2预测的4.7%上升到了UCERF3预测的7.0%。
'The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously,' said lead author and USGS scientist Ned Field.
该项研究的主要作者、美国地址勘探局的科学家内德·菲尔德说:“最新的几率预测包含了可能存在的多断层断裂,也就是说地震不再只局限于在分开的、单独的断层,而是可能同时在多个断层之间发生断裂。
'This is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system.'
“本次发现意义重大,它通过加州复杂的断层系统表明发生大规模地震的可能性。
Two kinds of scientific models are used to inform decisions of how to safeguard against earthquake losses: an Earthquake Rupture Forecast, which indicates where and when the Earth might slip along the state's many faults, and a Ground Motion Prediction model, which estimates the ground shaking given one of the fault ruptures.
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