FT社评新兴经济体亟需结构改革_时事

FT社评新兴经济体亟需结构改革

几年来，这种欣快感一直在消退，如今则已陷入低潮。上周，世界银行(World Bank)警告称，发展中国家面临一场“结构性放缓，它们把全球增长“领头羊的地位让给了富裕世界。进口需求下滑意味着，今年第一季度新兴市场对世界贸易增长的贡献出现了下降，这是2009年来的首次。

In reality, weaknesses within the emerging world have been evident for some time. Fewcountries have built the kind of diverse high-productivity economy that will propel them intothe first rank of rich states.

事实上，新兴世界的弱点已暴露出来一段时间了。没有几个新兴国家建立起了那种足以推动它们跻身世界一流富国行列的多元化高效经济。

According to a study by the International Monetary Fund, the slowdown in trend growth inmiddle-income countries has been in train since the crisis. For years, weak productivityimprovements were masked by low interest rates, helped by quantitative easing in the US, andby high commodity prices.

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一份研究报告，自金融危机以来，中等收入国家的趋势增长率下降就开始了。多年来，生产率改善进展不大，这一点被低利率(得益于美国的量化宽松)和大宗商品价格高企掩盖住了。

Those props are now being kicked away and, with the US Federal Reserve yet to raise rates,there may still be a bigger squeeze to come. The growth model of countries like Brazil has beenexposed. Chronic deficits, high inflation and an overvalued exchange rate have left thecountry with no alternative but tighter monetary policy and a recession. The evaporation ofa favourable external environment exposes the past failure to reform. One or two leaders,such as Narendra Modi in India and Joko Widodo in Indonesia, are belatedly trying to reorientgovernment spending away from wasteful subsidies and towards productive investment, but itwill take time.