鉴于危机爆发以来各央行的行动带有“准财政性质,鉴于非常规政策对央行资产负债表构成的风险,政治插手货币政策的可能性是不可忽视的。
On the other hand, liberalisation of labour markets and the decline of union power seemsunlikely to be reversed in the short and medium term. Note, though, that with ageingpopulations, a shrinking workforce may exercise market power to grab higher wages against aretired population that tries to use voting power to secure stable retirement incomes.
另一方面,劳动力市场自由化和工会实力衰退的趋势看来在短期和中期内不太可能逆转。不过请注意,在人口老龄化的大背景下,日益减少的劳动力或许会借助市场实力争取更高工资,而退休人群努力利用自己的选票来保住稳定的退休收入。
The dangers inherent in a subnormal interest rate world relate, first, to the accumulation ofdebt. Debt of almost any size in relation to gross domestic product becomes manageable attoday’s negligible interest rates. Whether it stays manageable depends on whether politiciansseize the opportunity to deliver structural reforms and infrastructure investment to enhancegrowth, without which debts cannot ultimately be serviced.
在利率低于正常水平的世界,其内在危险首先与债务积累有关。以如今可忽略的利率水平,债务相对于国内生产总值(GDP)的规模无论有多大,都是可管理的。至于债务未来能不能保持可管理,则取决于政界人士能否抓住机遇,推行结构性改革,并投资于基础设施,以推动经济增长。若非如此,债务最终将无法偿还。
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