然而,较宽浮动区间并未加大政府干预的难度。中国央行只需将当日中间价设定在更加远离即期汇率的水平,就可收到同样的效果。这正是该行今年所做的。2015年,人民币即期汇率交易价比央行的中间价平均低1.5%——这种差距在2014年3月之前是不可能出现的。
Yet the fact that the spot rate has traded weaker than the PBoC fixing every day since lateNovember is a clear sign that the midpoint is acting as a constraint on market pressure forthe currency to weaken.
然而,去年11月底以来,即期汇率天天低于央行设定的每日中间价,这是一个明确的迹象,说明央行的中间价起到了约束人民币下行市场压力的作用。
Analysts broadly agree that the Chinese government is likely to continue with incrementalmeasures to reduce restrictions on cross-border capital flows and allow greater exchange rateflexibility.
分析师普遍认为,中国政府很可能继续采取渐进措施,减少对跨境资本流动的限制,允许更大的汇率弹性。
Just last week the PBoC announced that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth fundscould invest in China’s domestic bond market without prior approval. Outbound flows willalso be further liberalised, as authorities prepare a plan that will allow individual Chineseresidents to directly purchase overseas financial assets for the first time.
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