美联储看来要犯严重错误_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

美联储看来要犯严重错误

There may have been a financial stability case for raising rates six or nine months ago, as lowinterest rates were encouraging investors to take more risks and businesses to borrow moneyand engage in financial engineering. At the time, I believed that the economic costs of a rateincrease exceeded the financial stability benefits, but there were grounds for concern. Thatdebate is now moot. With credit becoming more expensive, the outlook for the Chineseeconomy clouded at best, emerging markets submerging, the US stock market in acorrection, widespread concerns about liquidity, and expected volatility having increased ata near-record rate, markets are themselves dampening any euphoria or overconfidence. TheFed does not have to do the job. At this moment of fragility, raising rates risks tipping somepart of the financial system into crisis, with unpredictable and dangerous results.

若是在6个月或9个月之前加息，或许还能祭出金融稳定方面的理由，因为那时低利率正鼓励投资者承担更多风险，鼓励企业借入更多资金从事金融工程。当时，我认为加息的经济代价大于维持金融稳定方面的收益，但各方有理由感到担忧。现在这场辩论已无关紧要了。随着信贷变得更昂贵，中国经济前景即使往好了说也是乌云密布，新兴市场正在沉没，美国股市陷入回调，市场普遍担忧流动性，以及预期波动率以接近创纪录的速度加大，市场本身正在抑制狂热氛围或者过度乐观情绪。美联储不需要出手。在当下市场脆弱之时加息，可能会把金融体系的某些部分推入危机，带来难以预料的危险后果。

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