There are no atheists in foxholes; is there any differentiation in an emerging market meltdown?Emerging market policymakers have had their strenuous efforts to reduce vulnerability stress-tested to the extreme by the market panic this week.
散兵坑里没有无神论者;新兴市场在崩溃中会有任何分化吗?新兴市场政策制定者已下了很大的努力来降低本国的脆弱性。这种脆弱性在上周的市场恐慌中遭到极端的压力测试。
There have been myriad attempts to sort EMs into different categories susceptible to differentshocks, the most recent being the Morgan Stanley typology reproduced here. But the history ofprevious episodes of market turmoil, most particularly the taper tantrums of last year andearly this year, is that all EMs can get drawn into the maelstrom.
人们已很多次尝试把新兴市场区分为易受不同冲击的不同类别,比如最近重新被运用的摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)分类法。但是,以往多次市场混乱、尤其是去年和今年初的“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum,即美联储缩减量化宽松引起的恐慌),表明所有新兴市场都可能被拉入大漩涡中。
It is obviously way too soon to draw firm conclusions about how much EM assets will all suffertogether from the latest asset price turmoil — not least because the People’s Bank of Chinastepping in with a rate cut on Tuesday helped to reverse some of the falls. But the history ofprevious episodes of emerging market turmoil, plus some tentative signs in recent monthsand days, suggest that EMs that have done their policy groundwork may be rewarded.
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