同时——尽管这开始进入微观证据的范畴——中国央行降息之前的周一的交易表明,投资者准备把中国和其他新兴市场区分开来。整个亚洲的新兴市场股市收复了前一周的失地,而中国股市继续下跌。
In the longer term, the actual impact on EM economies from recent market turbulence will notnecessarily match the price movements. Commodity exporters with strong inflation and crisis-fighting credentials are likely to benefit rather than lose from depreciations.
从更长远看,近期市场动荡对新兴市场的实际影响将不一定与价格变动一致。通胀水平高、应对危机能力强的大宗商品出口国,可能从贬值中受益而不是受损。
The impact of stock price movements on the real economy depends on how exposedhouseholds are to equity markets — a point many observers have made with respect to China— and how dependent companies are on them to raise capital. (It is notable that EM bondprices have often moved less in recent weeks than currencies and stocks.)
股价波动对实体经济的影响,取决于家庭在股市投入了多少——许多观察人士在研究中国时得出了这个结论——以及企业在多大程度上依赖股市筹集资本。(值得注意的是,近几周里,新兴市场债券价格的波动经常小于其汇率和股市的波动。)
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