Well, what might be causing this clustering? There are at least three possibilities: One possibility is that, as I gain weight, it causes you to gain weight. A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person. Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily, or, birds of a feather flock together; here, I form my tie to you because you and I share a similar body size. And the last possibility is what is known as confounding, because it confounds our ability to figure out what's going on. And here, the idea is not that my weight gain is causing your weight gain, nor that I preferentially form a tie with you because you and I share the same body size, but rather that we share a common exposure to something, like a health club that makes us both lose weight at the same time.
所以,造成这种聚集的原因有哪些呢?至少有三种可能。第一种就是当我体重增加时,也导致了你的体重增加,类似磁场感应,由一个人传到另一个人。另一种可能,很显然,就是同类的聚合效应,物以类聚、人以群分。我之所以和你建立关系,正是因为我们俩身形相似。而最后一种可能,叫做混杂因素,因为它模糊我们找到真正原因的能力。这意味着我的增肥,并没有直接导致你体重增加,我也不是因为咱俩身形相似才和你建立关系,而是因为我们俩都接触到了相同的经历,比如说健康俱乐部,导致我们俩同时减肥。
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