如今的精英经常被嘲笑未能预知2008年的金融危机,但实际上,这种失明是司空见惯的。1914年,几乎无人预测到第一次世界大战:历史学家尼尔?弗格森(Niall Ferguson)指出,那个夏天,债券价格持续上涨,这意味着投资者没有预测到政府借款增加。预测者也没能预见犹太人大屠杀、中国文化大革命以及9?11恐怖袭击。
Our western generation is particularly ill-equipped to foresee catastrophes, because our countries have hardly experienced any since 1945. (We tend to forget our various close shaves with nuclear war, accidental and otherwise.) Now we are like Taleb’s famous turkey. Every day, he gets fed by a nice farmer. The turkey’s risk analysts make a forecast: based on past trends, he will keep getting fatter. Then, just before Thanksgiving?.?.?.?
我们西方这一代人尤其没有能力预知灾难,因为我们的国家自1945年以来几乎从未经历过任何灾难。(我们往往会忘记与意外或非意外核战争的各种擦肩而过。)如今,我们就像塔勒布书中那只有名的火鸡。它每天由一位善良的农民饲养。火鸡的风险分析人士预测:根据过去的趋势,它会不断变肥。接着,就在感恩节前……
How not to be that turkeyTaleb has some tips:
怎么才能不成为那只火鸡呢?塔勒布提出了一些建议:
You can’t know which catastrophe will happen, but expect that any day some catastrophe could. In Tversky’s words: “Surprises are expected.” Better to worry than die blasé. Mobilise politically to forestall catastrophe.
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