Black Swan has just been reissued. Almost simultaneously, Michael Lewis has published The Undoing Project, about Kahneman’s intellectual collaboration with fellow psychologist Amos Tversky. Both books share an argument: people make bad judgments and terrible predictions. It’s a timely point. The risk of some kind of catastrophe — armed conflict, natural disaster, and/or democratic collapse — appears to have risen. The incoming US president has talked about first use of nuclear weapons, and seems happy to let Russia invade nearby countries. Most other big states are led by militant nationalists. Meanwhile, the polar ice caps are melting fast. How can we fallible humans avert catastrophe?
《黑天鹅》刚刚再版发行。几乎同时,迈克尔?刘易斯(Michael Lewis)出版了《思维解谜》(The Undoing Project)一书,写的是卡内曼与同为心理学家的阿莫斯?特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)的学术合作。这两本著作提出了一个共同的观点:人们会做出糟糕的判断和预测。这是一个及时的观点。发生某种灾难的风险(武装冲突、自然灾难、民主崩溃)似乎已上升。新任美国总统提到过首次使用核武器,而且他似乎乐于让俄罗斯侵略邻近的国家。多数其他大国由好战民族主义者领导。与此同时,极地冰盖正快速融化。我们这些容易犯错的人类如何能够避免灾难呢?
Today’s elites are often mocked for failing to foresee the financial crisis of 2008 but, in fact, such blindness is standard. In 1914, few people expected the first world war: the historian Niall Ferguson has shown that bond prices held up that summer, meaning that investors didn’t foresee higher government borrowing. Forecasters also missed the Holocaust, China’s Cultural Revolution and September 11.
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