这一切很可能会促使西方把外交重心转回到这三个“问题国家未竟的事业上,巴以冲突或伊朗核计划受到的新关注将因此减少。就伊朗核问题而言,那些宣称该问题将成为今年极为紧要之事的人可能会因此失望了。
In Africa, even the International Monetary Fund has jumped on its growth story. It is a more useful lens to look at Africa through than that of poverty and aid failure. But it disguises the challenges ahead. At least a quarter of Africa’s growth will come directly from energy and minerals, and a lot more still from their impact on other sectors. Across the continent, governments and decent oil and mineral companies with a long-term mindset are struggling to contain the dangers of corruption. This resource boom could make, or unmake, the continent.
就非洲而言,现在就连国际货币基金组织(IMF)也开始看好它的增长。这一点要比贫穷和援助失败更能反映出非洲的现状。但它也掩盖了非洲面临的挑战。非洲的增长至少会有四分之一直接来自于能源部门和矿产部门,而且还有更大比例的增长仍将来自于这两个部门对其他部门的影响。在整个非洲大陆,各国政府以及那些有长远眼光的正派的石油和矿产公司,正在艰难地抑制腐败的危险。资源繁荣既能够成就、也能够毁掉非洲大陆。
Meanwhile, in Asia, demographic pressures are bringing up old border disputes. Income inequalities are widening, leading to social protest. Consumer and dietary changes along with urban growth are aggravating water and food scarcities.
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