The more immediate risk for Apple is that rival walled gardens catch up and undercut its ability to charge a premium for devices. Smartphones running Google's Android system outsold iPhones by more than 3-to-1 in the year through September, according to Strategy Analytics, though part of that is due to the range of low-end phones running Android.

对苹果来说，更直接的风险在于竞争对手的“围 花园正在赶上来，这会削弱苹果对产品收取高价的能力。Strategy Analytics的数据表明，截至今年9月底，安装谷歌(Google)安卓系统(Android)的智能手机的销量是iPhone的三倍多，虽然这在一定程度上是受低端安卓手机销量上升的推动。

It is hard to say how much of a premium Apple gets for the iPhone 5 relative to comparable Android devices. But if it is 15%, say, and the premium disappeared, Apple's gross profit from selling iPhones in fiscal 2014 could be nearly 30% lower than Evercore's Mr. Cihra's current forecast, assuming no offsetting cost reductions. And earnings per share could amount to about $46 instead of $60.

很难说苹果iPhone 5比同档次安卓手机价格高了多少。假设高15%，那么如果失去这样的溢价，在不相应地降低成本的情况下，苹果2014财年销售iPhone所得的毛利润将可能比Evercore的西拉目前预测的水平低近30%。此外，每股收益可能约为46美元而不是60美元。

While lower profits are a risk, lower volume growth for Apple looks like a certainty on the present course. The iPhone is now offered by most of the world's wireless carriers. After T-Mobile USA, announced Wednesday, and China Mobile, perhaps next year, there won't be many high value wireless subscribers left to target.

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