Grantham's latest letter, out this week, contains astonishing and alarming news. The U.S. economic growth rate is collapsing, he says, and this is not a temporary thing. 'The U.S. GDP growth rate that we have become accustomed to for over a hundred years - in excess of 3% a year - is not just hiding behind temporary setbacks,' he warns. 'It is gone forever. Yet most business people (and the Fed) assume that economic growth will recover to its old rates.' He says this is a trend that has been developing for several decades. It was masked by the dotcom and housing bubbles, and by a wave of women entering the workforce from 1970 to 2000.
格兰瑟姆这封最新信件中包含了令人震惊、警醒的消息。他说,美国经济增长率在大幅下降,这种状况并不是暂时性的。他警告称:“在超过一百年的时间里,我们见惯了逾3%的美国国内生产总值年增速,这样的增速并非只是被暂时性的衰退所掩盖,而是已经一去不复返了。但多数商界人士(连同美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)在内)都以为经济增幅将恢复到过去的水平。他说,这种趋势实际上已经持续几十年了,但互联网和住房泡沫以及1970年到2000年期间的女性就业潮掩盖了这一趋势。
He expects future growth to be about 1% a year after inflation, and warns that rising costs of scarce raw materials - energy, metals and foodstuffs - may strangle even that. Grantham fears growth might turn negative, and stay there, within about one to three decades. We will enter a very different world - one in which effectively everything is recycled.
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