在某种程度上,印度有些独特:它长期存在预算赤字。不过,它在微观经济方面存在与其他成员国一样的缺陷。腐败无处不在,今年夏天因管理不力造成影响6亿用户的大规模停电。供应面的僵化严重妨碍了印度经济发展,使得刺激政策很快演化为接近10%的通胀率。去年国际货币基金组织(IMF)还预测印度有望维持8.1%的年经济增长率,但在今年就将这一数字下调为6.9%。
The IMF’s estimate of trend growth in China has come down from 9.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. As elsewhere, corruption and distorted prices are the key challenges. State-owned companies account for more than half the capitalisation of the stock market. They hog subsidised credit, hire the best graduates and lobby fiercely against deregulation. Li Keqiang, the incoming premier, recently said that China had used up its “demographic dividend of plentiful labour and would now have to rely on a “reform dividend. But China has yet to act accordingly.
IMF对中国趋势增长率的预计从9.5%下调至8.5%。与其他国家一样,腐败和价格扭曲是中国的关键挑战。国有企业占了该国股市一半以上的市值。它们独享补贴性的信贷,聘用最优秀的毕业生,积极游说反对放松管制。将出任总理的李克强近期表示,中国快要耗尽充足劳动力带来的“人口红利,现在必须依靠“改革红利。但中国尚未采取相应行动。
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