The Brics are following a version of this playbook. Macroeconomic management remains credible. China, in particular, has dramatically cut export dependence without suffering a hard landing. But macro success has bred micro complacency. Governments have permitted themselves to meddle destructively in markets. State companies have been allowed to stifle innovative competitors. The upshot is that the resilience of the Brics in the face of the 2008 financial shock has not been matched by resilience to an extended period of weak global demand.
“金砖国家正照着类似的剧本行事。它们的宏观经济管理仍然可靠,尤其是中国,它在避免硬着陆的情况下显著降低了对出口的依赖。但宏观经济上的成功滋生了微观经济领域的自满。政府肆无忌惮地对市场进行破坏性干预,并放任国有企业打压具有创新能力的竞争对手。结果就是,“金砖国家成功度过了2008年金融危机,但面对全球需求的持续疲软,它们则缺乏抵抗力。
Consider Brazil. It boasts moderate inflation, sober public finances and a partially flexible exchange rate. Its central bank has tried to revive growth by reducing its lending rate by 525 basis points over the past 16 months. But growth this year will come in at barely more than 1 per cent because a blizzard of micro meddling has damaged business confidence. Petrobras, the state oil company that accounts for a 10th of the economy, epitomises this malady. Despite the discovery in 2007 of lucrative offshore oil, it is losing money because of local content rules and irrational fixed prices.
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