“金砖国家——乃至全体新兴经济体——在宏观经济管理方面值得高度赞扬。20世纪七、八十年代,在所有新兴和发展中经济体中,有一半国家的通胀率都达到了两位数。如今,通胀率处于两位数水平的不到五分之一。就在20世纪90年代,新兴经济体公共债务与国内生产总值之比的中值还在65%以上。但在过去两年,这一中值已降至40%以下。如果再考虑到与日俱增的外汇储备、以本国货币而不是美元计价的债务和灵活的汇率(中国是明显的例外),对新兴经济体的热捧看上去几乎是合理的。
Since the emerging market crises of 1997-2002, these strong macro foundations have delivered extraordinary performance. As the IMF noted in its October World Economic Outlook, the past decade witnessed the first time that emerging economies enjoyed longer expansions and shorter downturns than advanced economies. When the global financial crisis hit, emerging economies’ budget deficits were small so the fiscal counterattack could be forceful. Inflation was quiescent so credit could be eased safely. In the 1990s, emerging economies that cut interest rates were punished with capital flight and currency collapse, triggering the bankruptcy of businesses with debts in dollars. This time, ample foreign exchange reserves offset capital flight and the shift away from dollar borrowing insured companies against depreciation.
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