在1997年至2002年的新兴市场危机之后,这些坚实的宏观经济基础造就了优异的表现。正如IMF在10月份的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中所提到的那样,过去十年首次出现了新兴经济体持续扩张时间长于发达经济体、衰退时间短于发达经济体的现象。当全球金融危机来袭时,新兴经济体的预算赤字较低,因此完全可以采取有力的财政应对措施。静止的通胀率使它们得以放心地放宽信贷。20世纪90年代,下调利率的新兴经济体受到了资本外逃和货币急剧贬值的惩罚,并导致背负美元债务的企业纷纷破产。这一次,充足的外汇储备抵消了资本外逃,减少借入美元债务的行为保障了企业不会受到贬值影响。
That is the good news. But, as the rich world discovered in the wake of its own “Great Moderation, resilient growth encourages complacency. In the US, households borrowed too much and regulators grew indulgent. In Europe, this pattern was amplified by the “club effect of euro membership. Countries that had tightened their belts to meet the criteria for accession went soft once they were admitted. With cheap foreign capital buoying living standards, there was no will to fix microeconomic problems such as sclerotic labour markets.
这是好消息。然而,正如富裕国家在其“大缓和(Great Moderation)时代后发现的那样,稳健的增长会滋生自满情绪。在美国,家庭借贷过多,但监管机构坐视不管。在欧洲,欧元区成员国资格的“俱乐部效应进一步增加了这种自满。一些国家为达到加入欧元区的标准而“勒紧腰带,一旦加入后却放松下来。既然廉价的外国资本提高了生活水准,这些国家自然也就失去了解决劳动力市场僵化等微观经济问题的意愿。
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