以巴西为例。巴西通胀率较低,公共财政稳健,汇率有一定的灵活性。在过去16个月内,巴西央行将贷款利率累计下调525个基点,以图恢复经济增长。然而,由于一连串的微观干预损伤企业信心,巴西今年的经济增长率预计将仅略高于1%。规模占巴西经济10%的巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)便深受其害。该公司尽管于2007年发现极具开采价值的近海石油,但当地成分要求(local content rules)和不合理的定价机制使其处于亏损状态。
The story is similar in Russia. The current account is in surplus, inflation is modest and the budget is in balance. But microeconomic policy is lousy. Corruption deters investors. State companies elbow out private ones. Plans to diversify the economy have been a failure. Instead of building manufacturing exports, Russia is exporting skilled workers.
俄罗斯的情况与之相似:经常账户存在盈余,通胀率较低,预算平衡。但该国微观经济政策极为糟糕,腐败吓退投资者,国企排挤私企,经济多元化计划未能成功。俄罗斯未能实现制造业出口,反而在输出熟练劳动力。
In some ways India is the odd one out: it runs a chronic budget deficit but shares the microeconomic weaknesses of its brethren. Corruption is pervasive and dysfunctional regulation inflicted blackouts on 600m consumers in the summer. Supply side rigidities handicap India’s economy so thoroughly that stimulus quickly causes inflation, which is close to 10 per cent. Last year the IMF projected India could sustain growth of 8.1 per cent per year. This year that has been revised to 6.9 per cent.
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