但到2030年,中国甚至可能无法实现小麦和玉米的自给自足,将不得不增加进口,而NIC得出的结论是,这可能引发“国际市场粮食价格大幅上涨。”
None of this needs to happen if China—as well as other developing nations—pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.
如果中国和其他发展中国家能够找到提高作物产量和维护水资源的新方法,以上预测的状况便不会发生。NIC推荐了三项需要开发的新技术:转基因作物、精细农业和高科技灌溉。
The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics—enabled by molecular biology—hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.
NIC认为,在分子生物学的推动下,植物遗传学取得重大突破,前景广阔,将实现未来15 - 20年内的粮食安全。通过分子植物育种,可以设计出需要少量化肥的抗虫抗旱作物。中国等国家可能需要克服来自消费者和国际监管机构的阻力。
Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, "autonomous tractors"—think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels—can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that "vertical" farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.
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