布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球外汇策略主管马克·钱德勒(Marc Chandler)说:“关于最近美元走强的原因,最好的解释是,这是增长速度差异与利率差异共同作用的结果。”
US 10-year yields have risen to their highest premium since August 2011 versus much lower Japanese yields. German two-year yields sit an average of 18 basis points below their US benchmark, the largest divergence since early January, says Mr Chandler.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)全球外汇策略主管艾伦·拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)说:“我们正回归传统周期,美国重新成为经济复苏的领头羊。”
Some warn that this divergence in bond yields may not last. If so, the recent burst of dollar strength could prove temporary. Jose Wynne, head of global FX strategy at Barclays, says investors looking for a firmer signal of sustained dollar strength should wait for it to rally against a broader pool of currencies, including those of emerging nations.
美国10年期国债收益率走高,而日本10年期国债收益率则大幅下跌,二者息差已扩大到2011年8月以来的最高值。德国两年期国债收益率平均比美国两年期国债收益率低18个基点,钱德勒表示,目前两者息差处于1月初以来最高水平。
There are historical clues to further gains. The last two big periods of dollar ascendancy occurred in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. Those bull runs were marked by a starting point where the dollar was cheaply valued against the backdrop of an improving domestic economy and rising interest rates.
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