要避免欧元解体,德国必须通过降低对外贸易顺差、扭转如今这种容易导致经济状况不稳定的贸易失衡,因为目前德国的对外贸易顺差削弱了其他国家创造需求的能力,而这种需求是这些国家经济的必要支撑。事实上,只要减少顺差,众多德国人反对的“资金转移联盟(transfer union)将失去存在的必要。
But if Germany continues to run big external surpluses, a transfer union will become indispensable. Only then can Germany ensure its customers can finance the purchase of its goods.
然而,如果德国持续保持高额对外贸易顺差,资金转移联盟将必不可少。因为只有存在资金转移联盟,德国才能保证其顾客有钱购买德国商品。
These manifold implications of a failed euro make it clear that the real issue for Germany today is not about bailing out the rest, but about saving itself before it is too late.
欧元解体导致的这种种后果表明,德国现在真正面临的问题不在于是否为其他国家纾困,而在于能否及时自救。
Recent policy moves suggest that Angela Merkel may realise this. Getting Germany’s middle class to do so is one of the biggest challenges facing the chancellor as she heads towards federal elections next September.
最近的政策动向显示,安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)也许已经意识到了这一点。德国将于明年9月举行联邦议会选举,值此,默克尔面临的最大挑战之一就是,如何让德国的中产阶级展开自救。
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