What never seems to be debated in Germany is how the industrial foundation of the country’s prosperity would be threatened if the euro fails. If that happened, Germany would be forced to return to the Deutschmark – which would almost certainly soar in value, causing the competitiveness of manufacturing to plummet.
如果欧元解体,德国经济繁荣所倚赖的工业基础将受到威胁,这一点似乎从来都毫无争议。如果这种情况真的发生了,德国将被迫重新启用德国马克,而德国马克几乎肯定将会大幅升值,从而导致德国制造业的竞争力急剧下降。
In such circumstances, Germany’s multinational companies would be quick to develop survival strategies. Yes, there would be a short-term hit from the falling income of other Europeans who buy German goods. However, German manufacturers would waste little time shifting production abroad to take advantage of lower labour costs and capacity for quality production elsewhere. Design and research might remain at home, but the production and assembly associated with plentiful high-wage jobs will move away.
在这种情形下,德国跨国公司可能会迅速制订出一些策略,以求生存。没错,德国产品的购买者——欧洲其他国家的消费者收入降低,这可能会在短期内对德国制造商造成冲击。但德国的制造商会迅速将生产转移至国外,利用其他地区更为低廉的劳动力及产能生产优质产品。设计与研究部门可能将留在德国国内,但与生产和组装相关的大量高薪职位将流向德国以外地区。
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★ 海尔柯贝斯2
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