看诺贝尔经济学奖得主如何谈投资_BEC初级作文

看诺贝尔经济学奖得主如何谈投资

答：嗯，是泡沫。对于泡沫，通常的说法是，市场虽然看起来呈随机走势，但那只是因为市场会对新信息作出反应，而新信息总是不可预见的。在我看来这种说法几乎像一个神话。认为人们能如此高效、慎重并且迅捷地更新信息的说法，也许只适用于1%那么小的一部分人。没法用它对整个市场做出解释。

Q: Are bubbles always a bad thing, or do they have some good effects?

问：泡沫始终是件坏事吗？它们有没有某些好的作用？

A: First of all, it's a free world and people can do what they want. I'm not proposing we put the straightjacket on these things. The other thing is that human nature needs stimulation and people have to have some sense of opportunity and excitement. I think profits are an important motivator. In the long run, it's hard to say that bubbles are really bad.

答：首先，这是一个自由的世界，人们可以做自己想做的事，我不是建议要给这些东西戴上紧箍咒。另一方面，人的本性需要刺激，而人得有某种机会意识与兴奋感。我认为利润是重要的刺激因素。从长远眼光来看，很难说泡沫就是十足的坏东西。

Take the Internet bubble in the 1990s. What that did was generate a lot of start-ups, some of them foolish, some of them failed, but others survived, so is it a bad thing? I find it hard to think what the alternative would be. We could have had a Federal Reserve that tried to lean against that. Ultimately, our policies in economics are somewhat intuitive and our models are not accurate enough to tell us what the right policy is, so I'm thinking we might have been better off if we tamed these bubbles, but there is no way to be sure.