最新信心调查的可怕结果与我的预测相符:紧缩将对明年的增长造成非常严重的负面影响。包括希腊在内的南欧的衰退很可能至少延续到2014年,那时,债务与GDP的比率可能与现在类似。如果你在相当长的年份里推行一个接一个紧缩计划,那么这项政策最终可能奏效。但这在政治上是一种不切实际的主张。例如,葡萄牙为达到既定的赤字目标,已在削减针对穷人的生活补助费。
I believe therefore that crisis resolution still has to happen, but I see no evidence that we are getting there, not even in small steps. I do not expect any change in this situation even after the German elections. Since the crisis is not going to resolve itself, I cannot see any fundamental change in the situation – except that the ECB has removed the risk of accidents in the short term.
因此我认为,危机解决必须出现,但我看不到任何证据证明,我们正在接近这个目标,甚至连小的进展也没有。即便在德国选举之后,我也不指望形势会出现任何改观。因为这场危机不会自己解决,我看不到形势发生了任何根本变化——除了欧洲央行消除了短期出现意外的风险之外。
To put it another way: if you are optimistic, then surely you must treat this as a liquidity crisis. And then, surely, you must have believed this six months ago. I think this is wrong, but at least it would be an internally consistent position.
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2020-09-15
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