过去两周期间发布的经济数据(从出口同比增长10%到货币供应大幅上升)似乎表明,中国经济有望在未来几个月出现温和复苏。政府本月表示,第三季度中国的国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.4%。
“The better October flash PMI and September data paint a consistent picture of a likely further pick-up in economic activity on the back of more accommodative monetary conditions, increasing infrastructure investment, recovering property market activity and improving external demand, wrote Jian Chiang, China economist at Barclays, in a note to clients.
“10月份有所好转的PMI预览值和9月份数据相互吻合,都说明经济活动有望进一步回升,其支持因素包括更加宽松的货币条件、基础设施投资不断增加、房地产市场活动不断复苏,以及外部需求出现起色,巴克莱(Barclays)中国经济学家常健在一份发给客户的简报中表示。
Reflecting this renewed optimism, producers have started to increase prices. HSBC economists Sun Junwei and Qu Hongbin pointed to the rise in steel and cement costs in recent weeks on the back of increased construction activity. “Both PPI and CPI inflation likely bottomed in September and will see a modest rebound in coming months, they said.
突显乐观情绪再度出现的迹象之一是,生产商开始提价。汇丰经济学家孙俊伟和屈宏斌指出,在建筑活动增加的支持下,近几周中国钢材和水泥价格有所上升。“PPI(工业品出厂价格指数)和CPI(消费价格指数)通胀很可能都已在9月份触底,并将在未来几个月温和反弹,他们表示。
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