看起来,这个想法几乎可以说是天真的。我们本能地觉得,饥荒和地震的受害者需要的是食物和庇护所,而不是不能拿来吃的金钱。我们还可能觉得,这些钱会被浪费——被偷了、用来喝酒了,浪费在享乐上了,或者被贪心的亲戚卷走了。就算这些钱得到了很好的利用,是否就能够带来可自我维持的财务增长呢?然而,越来越多种类的发展政策正得出结论:钱胜过了许多替代选项。
Ponder the most obvious objection first: that poor people will waste the money. David Evans and Anna Popova of the World Bank surveyed 19 randomised trials across the world studying cash transfers. Not one of them found evidence that spending on alcohol or tobacco had increased by a statistically significant amount. Poor people have better things to do with the money and often spend it well or even invest it successfully.
先来考虑一下最显而易见的反对意见:穷人会浪费这笔钱。世界银行(World Bank)的戴维埃文斯(David Evans)和安娜波波娃(Anna Popova)对分布于世界各地、研究现金转移的19个随机性试验进行了调查。两人都没有发现任何证据,表明接受现金转移的人花在烟酒上的支出出现了有统计意义的增长。穷人会用这笔钱去做更好的事情,他们通常会很好地利用这笔钱,甚至进行成功的投资。
Blattman and his colleagues conducted what one might regard as a test-to-destruction of the “just give cash” policy. They handed out $200 at a time to homeless thieves and drug dealers in the slums of Liberia as part of a larger randomised trial. One could hardly think of a cash injection more likely to be squandered. And yet, on average, just $8 was spent on drinking or drugs; the rest was spent on rent, food, clothes and “business investments”. The most successful of these was a barrel full of strong drink that was resold by the cupful on the street.
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