多年来,投资者一直执迷于增长,而忽视了根本的现金创造。然而,如果一家平平淡淡的企业,每年的收入或利润几乎都不见增长,但却有效地将利润转化为现金,拥有这种企业是有可能创造稳健且安全的回报的。这类企业股票的市盈率往往仅为4、5倍。
Another advantage of cash generators is that they can be partially acquired using debt, since a bank will feel secure enough to lend against them. In an era of low interest rates and generally weak returns, companies that can deliver net cash every year should attract more buyers. By contrast, growth companies ought to be regarded with greater suspicion in a stagnant economy. Moreover, growth usually takes working capital – meaning a reduced cash surplus for distribution.
现金创造者的另一个优势在于,可以在一定程度上举债收购它们,因为银行对于以它们为抵押放贷相当放心。在低利率和回报率普遍较低的时期,能够每年产生净现金的企业应会吸引更多买家。相比之下,在经济停滞不前时,增长型企业应让人们怀有更多的疑虑。另外,增长通常要占用营运资金,这意味着用于分配的现金盈余将减少。
An example of how markets despise a business they label as ex-growth is Home Retail Group. This is the £5.5bn turnover retailer that owns Argos and Homebase among other high street brands. It has net cash and sits on an ebitda to enterprise value ratio of just 2.5 times – in a year when profits are depressed. Clearly, institutions see it as mature and probably in decline.
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